Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Montedio Yamagata travel to face Omiya Ardija on Saturday 14 November in the J2 League, with NACK5 Stadium Omiya the venue – the ball rolls at 06:00 WAT. In the table, Omiya Ardija are 5th, upper half, on 30 points after 16 matches; Montedio Yamagata are 14th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Omiya Ardija, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Tochigi City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Montedio Yamagata, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Iwaki, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Omiya Ardija, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Montedio Yamagata.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Omiya Ardija 1.8 xG, Montedio Yamagata 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Omiya Ardija 56%, draw 23%, Montedio Yamagata 20%.
Lower-risk option: Omiya Ardija or draw (80%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.50.
Betarazi verdict
Our call: Under 3.5 goals (66%, odds 1.52). Most likely score in line with that pick: Omiya Ardija 1–0 Montedio Yamagata. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Omiya Ardija56%fair 1.77 · @1.69
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.82
Montedio Yamagata20%fair 4.96 · @3.78
2.68Expected goals
1.77Omiya Ardija xG
0.91Montedio Yamagata xG
57%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Omiya Ardija 1.8 – 0.9 Montedio Yamagata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Omiya Ardija
Montedio Yamagata
Attack vs J2 League average
+41%
-27%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
-13%
Our expected goals here
1.70
0.82
Our own ratings from every J2 League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Omiya Ardija to win
56%
1.77
1.69
Double chance
Omiya Ardija or draw
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.50
Draw no bet
Omiya Ardija (draw no bet)
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Montedio Yamagata +1.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.52
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.17
First team to score
Omiya Ardija to score first
62%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Omiya Ardija ahead at half-time
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Omiya Ardija / FT Omiya Ardija
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
Omiya Ardija – last 6
WWWDLL
8 Nov
@ Tochigi City
3–0
W
3 Nov
vs Iwaki
2–1
W
31 Oct
@ Vegalta Sendai
2–1
W
24 Oct
vs Yokohama FC
2–2
D
21 Oct
vs Kataller Toyama
0–3
L
17 Oct
@ Sagan Tosu
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Montedio Yamagata – last 6
LWWLLD
7 Nov
@ Iwaki
0–2
L
3 Nov
vs Tokushima Vortis
1–0
W
31 Oct
@ Vanraure Hachinohe
2–1
W
25 Oct
vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki
0–2
L
21 Oct
vs Consadole Sapporo
0–2
L
17 Oct
@ Fujieda MYFC
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Omiya Ardija and Montedio Yamagata.
What is the prediction for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
On our numbers Omiya Ardija have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Montedio Yamagata 20%.
How many goals will there be in Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Our predicted score is Omiya Ardija 1–0 Montedio Yamagata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata (J2 League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at NACK5 Stadium Omiya.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
