Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓37% · @3.20
Double chanceLarne or draw ✓69% · @1.57
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.76
Larne vs Saburtalo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Saburtalo travel to face Larne on Tuesday 4 August in the UEFA Europa League, with Inver Park the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Larne, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to FK Crvena Zvezda, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Saburtalo, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Slovan Bratislava, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Larne 1.3 xG, Saburtalo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Larne 32%, draw 37%, Saburtalo 31%.
Lower-risk option: Larne or draw (69%) at 1.57.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Larne 1–1 Saburtalo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Larne32%fair 3.11 · @3.05
Draw37%fair 2.70 · @3.20
Saburtalo31%fair 3.26 · @2.32
2.45Expected goals
1.31Larne xG
1.14Saburtalo xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Larne 1.3 – 1.1 Saburtalo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
37%
2.70
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Larne or draw✓
69%
1.44
1.57 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.80
Draw no bet
Larne (draw no bet)
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Saburtalo +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Larne to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Larne / FT Larne✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.76
–
Recent results
Larne – last 6
LLWWWD
29 Jul
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
0–5
L
21 Jul
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
0–4
L
14 Jul
vs Tre Fiori
2–1
W
7 Jul
@ Tre Fiori
1–0
W
29 Jun
@ H&W Welders
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Stranraer
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Saburtalo – last 6
DWLDWD
29 Jul
@ Slovan Bratislava
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Margveti 2006
3–1
W
21 Jul
vs Slovan Bratislava
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Flora Tallinn
2–2
D
8 Jul
@ Flora Tallinn
3–2
W
1 Jul
vs Torpedo Kutaisi
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Larne and Saburtalo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Larne vs Saburtalo?
On our numbers Larne have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Saburtalo 31%.
How many goals will there be in Larne vs Saburtalo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Larne vs Saburtalo?
Our predicted score is Larne 1–1 Saburtalo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Larne vs Saburtalo?
Larne vs Saburtalo (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Tuesday 4 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Inver Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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