Value bet: US Ben Guerdane to win @ 2.90 – our chance 43% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUS Ben Guerdane to win ✓43% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.87
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Ligue 1 brings ES Hammam-Sousse against US Ben Guerdane at Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, ES Hammam-Sousse are 16th, in the drop zone, on 1 points after 7 matches; US Ben Guerdane are 1st (leading the league) with 17. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
ES Hammam-Sousse, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to ES Zarzis, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
US Ben Guerdane, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Club Africain, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours US Ben Guerdane, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.2 for ES Hammam-Sousse.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give ES Hammam-Sousse 1.0 xG, US Ben Guerdane 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – ES Hammam-Sousse 29%, draw 28%, US Ben Guerdane 43%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: US Ben Guerdane to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.84, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US Ben Guerdane. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
ES Hammam-Sousse29%fair 3.42 · @2.70
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @2.50
US Ben Guerdane43%fair 2.32 · @2.90
2.30Expected goals
1.01ES Hammam-Sousse xG
1.29US Ben Guerdane xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: ES Hammam-Sousse 1.0 – 1.3 US Ben Guerdane expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Ben Guerdane to win✓
43%
2.32
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.44
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
US Ben Guerdane (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
ES Hammam-Sousse +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
US Ben Guerdane to score first✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT US Ben Guerdane / FT US Ben Guerdane✓
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
ES Hammam-Sousse – last 6
LLLLDL
11 Oct
@ ES Zarzis
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Stade Tunisien
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ ES Metlaoui
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Club Africain
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs US Monastirienne
0–0
D
29 May
vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
US Ben Guerdane – last 6
WWDDWL
10 Oct
vs Club Africain
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs CS Hammam-Lif
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs CS Sfaxien
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ US Monastirienne
3–3
D
30 Aug
@ Olympique Béja
2–1
W
14 May
vs ES Tunis
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane.
What is the prediction for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
On our numbers ES Hammam-Sousse have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and US Ben Guerdane 43%.
How many goals will there be in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our predicted score is ES Hammam-Sousse 1–1 US Ben Guerdane, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
