Lions 34%Draw 22%Melbourne City 43%Expected goals 1.55 – 1.28
61%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
1
Value bet: Lions to win @ 4.20 – our chance 34% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +44%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMelbourne City to win ✗43% · @1.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.34
Lions vs Melbourne City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lions welcome Melbourne City to Lions Stadium for a Australia Cup fixture on Tuesday 11 August (10:30 WAT).
Current form
Lions, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Brisbane Roar II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Melbourne City, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Palermo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lions 1.6 xG, Melbourne City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lions 34%, draw 22%, Melbourne City 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Lions to win @4.20 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lions 1–1 Melbourne City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lions34%fair 2.92 · @4.20
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.75
Melbourne City43%fair 2.30 · @1.65
2.83Expected goals
1.55Lions xG
1.28Melbourne City xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lions 1.6 – 1.3 Melbourne City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne City to win✗
43%
2.30
1.65
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Melbourne City (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.79
–
Asian handicap
Melbourne City +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Lions to score first✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lions / FT Lions✓
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.34
–
Recent results
Lions – last 6
WWDWWL
7 Aug
vs Brisbane Roar II
4–2
W
1 Aug
vs Peninsula Power
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs Perth Glory
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Gold Coast United
1–0
W
12 Jul
vs Eastern Suburbs
1–0
W
7 Jul
@ Gold Coast Knights
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Melbourne City – last 6
LWLWWW
7 Aug
vs Palermo
0–2
L
26 Jul
@ Weston Bears
3–0
W
26 Apr
vs Adelaide United
1–2
L
18 Apr
@ Brisbane Roar
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Wellington Phoenix
2–0
W
7 Apr
vs Central Coast Mariners
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lions and Melbourne City.
What is the prediction for Lions vs Melbourne City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Lions vs Melbourne City?
On our numbers Lions have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Melbourne City 43%.
How many goals will there be in Lions vs Melbourne City?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lions vs Melbourne City?
Our predicted score is Lions 1–1 Melbourne City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lions vs Melbourne City?
Lions vs Melbourne City (Australia Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 11 August 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Lions Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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