Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Novara to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNovara to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceNovara or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.48
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Novara welcome Desenzano Calvina to Stadio Silvio Piola for a Serie C Girone A fixture on Monday 2 November (20:30 WAT). In the table, Novara are 14th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Desenzano Calvina are 13th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Novara, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Arzignano Valchiampo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Desenzano Calvina, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Dolomiti Bellunesi, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Desenzano Calvina, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Novara.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Novara 1.6 xG, Desenzano Calvina 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Novara 60%, draw 24%, Desenzano Calvina 15%.
Lower-risk option: Novara or draw (85%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Novara to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Novara or draw (85%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Novara 1–0 Desenzano Calvina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Novara60%fair 1.66 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.10
Desenzano Calvina15%fair 6.55 · @3.30
2.23Expected goals
1.58Novara xG
0.65Desenzano Calvina xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Novara 1.6 – 0.6 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✓
60%
1.66
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Novara or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.75
Draw no bet
Novara (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Novara -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Novara to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.48
–
Recent results
Novara – last 6
LDLWLD
25 Oct
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
0–2
L
18 Oct
@ Albinoleffe
2–2
D
10 Oct
vs Cittadella
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Ospitaletto
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Athletic Carpi
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Desenzano Calvina – last 6
WLLWWD
28 Oct
@ Dolomiti Bellunesi
1–0
W
25 Oct
vs Giana Erminio
1–2
L
18 Oct
@ Alcione
1–4
L
10 Oct
vs Dolomiti Bellunesi
2–0
W
3 Oct
@ Folgore Caratese
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Juventus U23
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Desenzano Calvina.
What is the prediction for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our pick is Novara or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
On our numbers Novara have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Desenzano Calvina 15%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–0 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Desenzano Calvina?
Novara vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
