Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Pineto to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPineto to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chancePineto or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.39
Pineto vs Vis Pesaro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pineto welcome Vis Pesaro to Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani for a Serie C Girone B fixture on Monday 9 November (20:30 WAT). In the table, Pineto are 11th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Vis Pesaro are 20th (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Pineto, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ravenna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Vis Pesaro, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gubbio, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Pineto, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Vis Pesaro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pineto 1.8 xG, Vis Pesaro 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pineto 64%, draw 21%, Vis Pesaro 16%.
Lower-risk option: Pineto or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Pineto to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pineto or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pineto 1–0 Vis Pesaro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pineto64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.60
Vis Pesaro16%fair 6.44 · @3.90
2.61Expected goals
1.85Pineto xG
0.77Vis Pesaro xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Pineto 1.8 – 0.8 Vis Pesaro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pineto to win✓
64%
1.57
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Pineto or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.83
Draw no bet
Pineto (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Pineto -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Pineto to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Pineto ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pineto / FT Pineto✓
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
14%
7.39
–
Recent results
Pineto – last 6
LWWDLL
1 Nov
@ Ravenna
1–2
L
23 Oct
vs Gubbio
1–0
W
20 Oct
vs Reggiana
2–0
W
17 Oct
@ Pianese
0–0
D
4 Oct
@ Guidonia Montecelio 1937
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Grosseto
0–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vis Pesaro – last 6
DLLLLW
1 Nov
@ Gubbio
0–0
D
28 Oct
@ Atalanta II
1–2
L
24 Oct
vs Ravenna
0–4
L
18 Oct
@ Latina
0–1
L
10 Oct
vs Grosseto
2–3
L
27 Sep
vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pineto and Vis Pesaro.
Our pick is Pineto or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Pineto vs Vis Pesaro?
On our numbers Pineto have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vis Pesaro 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pineto vs Vis Pesaro?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pineto vs Vis Pesaro?
Our predicted score is Pineto 1–0 Vis Pesaro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Pineto vs Vis Pesaro?
Pineto vs Vis Pesaro (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Monday 9 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Mimmo Pavone-Alessandro Mariani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
