Value bet: Bari to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBari to win ✗41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.25
Casertana vs Bari: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Friday 23 October: Casertana v Bari in the Serie C Girone C, played at Stadio Alberto Pinto. In the table, Casertana are 8th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Bari are 2nd (among the top four) with 23. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Casertana, last 5: DWLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sorrento, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Bari, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Crotone, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Bari, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Casertana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Casertana 1.1 xG, Bari 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Casertana 34%, draw 24%, Bari 41%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Bari to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.73). Most likely score in line with that pick: Casertana 1–1 Bari. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Casertana34%fair 2.90 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Bari41%fair 2.42 · @2.80
2.35Expected goals
1.11Casertana xG
1.24Bari xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Casertana 1.1 – 1.2 Bari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✗
41%
2.42
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.73
Draw no bet
Bari (draw no bet)
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Casertana +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Bari to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.25
–
Recent results
Casertana – last 6
DWLLDW
18 Oct
@ Sorrento
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs SS Monopoli
3–1
W
3 Oct
@ Cavese
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Catania
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Audace Cerignola
0–0
D
15 Sep
vs Team Altamura
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bari – last 6
DWLWWD
18 Oct
vs Crotone
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
4 Oct
@ Salernitana
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Cosenza
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sorrento
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Potenza
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casertana and Bari.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Casertana vs Bari?
On our numbers Casertana have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bari 41%.
How many goals will there be in Casertana vs Bari?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casertana vs Bari?
Our predicted score is Casertana 1–1 Bari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Casertana vs Bari?
Casertana vs Bari (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Pinto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
