Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Potenza to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPotenza to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chancePotenza or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Potenza vs Crotone: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Potenza v Crotone in the Serie C Girone C, played at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani. In the table, Potenza are 1st, leading the league, on 32 points after 13 matches; Crotone are 20th (in the drop zone) with 1. There are 31 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Potenza, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bari, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Crotone, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Casarano, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Potenza, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.8 for Crotone.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Potenza 2.1 xG, Crotone 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Potenza 64%, draw 20%, Crotone 17%.
Lower-risk option: Potenza or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Potenza to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Potenza or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Potenza 2–0 Crotone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Potenza64%fair 1.57 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.50
Crotone17%fair 6.04 · @3.80
3.14Expected goals
2.15Potenza xG
0.99Crotone xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Potenza 2.1 – 1.0 Crotone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Potenza to win✓
64%
1.57
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Potenza or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.62
Draw no bet
Potenza (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Potenza -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
First team to score
Potenza to score first✗
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Potenza ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Potenza / FT Potenza✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.09
–
Recent results
Potenza – last 6
WDWWWW
27 Oct
vs Bari
2–1
W
23 Oct
@ Team Altamura
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs Catania
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Foggia
3–1
W
4 Oct
vs AZ Picerno
4–2
W
27 Sep
@ Barletta
4–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Crotone – last 6
LDLLWD
26 Oct
vs Casarano
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Bari
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Audace Cerignola
2–3
L
3 Oct
@ Catania
1–2
L
26 Sep
vs Salernitana
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ SS Monopoli
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Potenza and Crotone.
Our pick is Potenza or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Potenza vs Crotone?
On our numbers Potenza have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Crotone 17%.
How many goals will there be in Potenza vs Crotone?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Potenza vs Crotone?
Our predicted score is Potenza 2–0 Crotone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Potenza vs Crotone?
Potenza vs Crotone (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
