Value bet: Astur to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSan Martín to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
San Martín vs Astur: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
San Martín welcome Astur for a Tercera División RFEF Group 2 fixture on Sunday 27 September (11:00 WAT). In the table, San Martín are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Astur are 16th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
San Martín, last 5: DLLWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Andes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Astur, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Siero, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours San Martín, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.0 for Astur.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give San Martín 1.3 xG, Astur 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – San Martín 42%, draw 23%, Astur 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Astur to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: San Martín 1–1 Astur. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
San Martín42%fair 2.41 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Astur35%fair 2.85 · @3.10
2.50Expected goals
1.32San Martín xG
1.18Astur xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: San Martín 1.3 – 1.2 Astur expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martín to win✗
42%
2.41
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Draw no bet
San Martín (draw no bet)
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Astur +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
San Martín to score first✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Martín / FT San Martín✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
San Martín – last 6
DLLWDL
20 Sep
@ Andes
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Condal
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Gijón Industrial
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs L'Entregu
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Colunga
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Mosconia
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Astur – last 3
LLL
20 Sep
vs Siero
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Colunga
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Caudal
0–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Martín and Astur.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win San Martín vs Astur?
On our numbers San Martín have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Astur 35%.
How many goals will there be in San Martín vs Astur?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Martín vs Astur?
Our predicted score is San Martín 1–1 Astur, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is San Martín vs Astur?
San Martín vs Astur (Tercera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
