Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: La Virgen del Camino to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLa Virgen del Camino to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Bembibre v La Virgen del Camino in the Tercera División RFEF Group 8. In the table, Bembibre are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; La Virgen del Camino are 6th (upper half) with 17. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bembibre, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Guijuelo, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
La Virgen del Camino, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cristo Atlético, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours La Virgen del Camino, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Bembibre.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended La Virgen del Camino 3–1 Bembibre.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bembibre 1.1 xG, La Virgen del Camino 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bembibre 33%, draw 23%, La Virgen del Camino 44%.
Price worth noting: La Virgen del Camino to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (59%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bembibre 1–1 La Virgen del Camino. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bembibre33%fair 3.06 · @2.55
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.00
La Virgen del Camino44%fair 2.27 · @2.50
2.33Expected goals
1.05Bembibre xG
1.28La Virgen del Camino xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Bembibre 1.1 – 1.3 La Virgen del Camino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Virgen del Camino to win✗
44%
2.27
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
–
Draw no bet
La Virgen del Camino (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Bembibre +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
La Virgen del Camino to score first✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Virgen del Camino / FT La Virgen del Camino✗
What is the prediction for Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
On our numbers Bembibre have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and La Virgen del Camino 44%.
How many goals will there be in Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Our predicted score is Bembibre 1–1 La Virgen del Camino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?
Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino (Tercera División RFEF Group 8) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
