Value bet: Almería II to win @ 2.67 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlmería II to win ✗40% · @2.67
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.33
Motril vs Almería II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 8 November the Tercera División RFEF Group 9 brings Motril against Almería II. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Motril are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Almería II are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Motril, last 5: DLWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Granada II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Almería II, last 5: DDWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Churriana Vega, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Motril 1.2 xG, Almería II 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Motril 36%, draw 24%, Almería II 40%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Almería II to win @2.67 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.34). Most likely score in line with that pick: Motril 1–1 Almería II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Motril36%fair 2.77 · @2.45
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.94
Almería II40%fair 2.52 · @2.67
2.42Expected goals
1.17Motril xG
1.25Almería II xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Motril 1.2 – 1.2 Almería II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almería II to win✗
40%
2.52
2.67 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Draw no bet
Almería II (draw no bet)
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Motril +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.34
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.61
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Almería II to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almería II / FT Almería II✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.33
–
Recent results
Motril – last 6
DLWDWW
1 Nov
@ Granada II
1–1
D
25 Oct
vs Málaga II
2–4
L
18 Oct
@ Cantoria
2–0
W
11 Oct
vs Atlético Porcuna
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ UD San Pedro
3–2
W
27 Sep
vs Alhaurino
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Almería II – last 6
DDWWDW
1 Nov
vs Churriana Vega
0–0
D
25 Oct
vs Atletico de Marbella
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Granada II
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Málaga II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Cantoria
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Atlético Porcuna
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Motril and Almería II.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Motril vs Almería II?
On our numbers Motril have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Almería II 40%.
How many goals will there be in Motril vs Almería II?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Motril vs Almería II?
Our predicted score is Motril 1–1 Almería II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Motril vs Almería II?
Motril vs Almería II (Tercera División RFEF Group 9) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
