Platges Calvià vs Migjorn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 3 October the Tercera División RFEF Group 11 brings Platges Calvià against Migjorn. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Platges Calvià are 1st, leading the league, on 24 points after 10 matches; Migjorn are 16th (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Platges Calvià, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cardassar, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Migjorn, last 4: WLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Binissalem, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Platges Calvià, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Migjorn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Platges Calvià 2.0 xG, Migjorn 0.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Platges Calvià 69%, draw 18%, Migjorn 12%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Platges Calvià to win (69%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Platges Calvià 2–0 Migjorn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Platges Calvià69%fair 1.44 · @1.36
Draw18%fair 5.44 · @4.20
Migjorn12%fair 8.09 · @7.00
2.75Expected goals
2.04Platges Calvià xG
0.71Migjorn xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–013%
2–19%
1–19%
3–09%
3–16%
From our goals model: Platges Calvià 2.0 – 0.7 Migjorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Platges Calvià to win✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Double chance
Platges Calvià or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.91
Draw no bet
Platges Calvià (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Platges Calvià -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Platges Calvià to score first✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Platges Calvià ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Platges Calvià / FT Platges Calvià✓
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.61
–
Recent results
Platges Calvià – last 6
WWLLWW
26 Sep
vs Cardassar
1–0
W
18 Sep
@ Binissalem
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Manacor
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1–2
L
3 May
vs Manacor
4–2
W
22 Apr
@ Felanitx
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Migjorn – last 4
WLLL
27 Sep
vs Binissalem
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Manacor
1–5
L
12 Sep
vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ PE Sant Jordi
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Platges Calvià and Migjorn.
What is the prediction for Platges Calvià vs Migjorn?
Our pick is Platges Calvià to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Platges Calvià vs Migjorn?
On our numbers Platges Calvià have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Migjorn 12%.
How many goals will there be in Platges Calvià vs Migjorn?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Platges Calvià vs Migjorn?
Our predicted score is Platges Calvià 2–0 Migjorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Platges Calvià vs Migjorn?
Platges Calvià vs Migjorn (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
