Quintanar del Rey 37%Draw 23%Toledo 39%Expected goals 1.08 – 1.11
62%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Toledo to win @ 3.30 – our chance 39% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultToledo to win ✓39% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Quintanar del Rey welcome Toledo for a Tercera División RFEF Group 18 fixture on Sunday 6 September (18:00 WAT). In the table, Quintanar del Rey are 17th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 10 matches; Toledo are 2nd (among the top four) with 22. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Quintanar del Rey, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Elche II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Toledo, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Albacete II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Quintanar del Rey, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Toledo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Quintanar del Rey 1.1 xG, Toledo 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Quintanar del Rey 37%, draw 23%, Toledo 39%.
Price worth noting: Toledo to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Quintanar del Rey 1–1 Toledo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Quintanar del Rey37%fair 2.67 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00
Toledo39%fair 2.55 · @3.30
2.19Expected goals
1.08Quintanar del Rey xG
1.11Toledo xG
46%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Quintanar del Rey 1.1 – 1.1 Toledo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✓
39%
2.55
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Draw no bet
Toledo (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Quintanar del Rey +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Toledo to score first✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✗
20%
4.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.04
–
Recent results
Quintanar del Rey – last 6
WDWWWL
3 May
@ Elche II
3–1
W
26 Apr
vs RSD Alcalá
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Intercity
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Fuenlabrada
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Navalcarnero
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Socuéllamos
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toledo – last 6
LDWWDD
24 May
vs Albacete II
0–1
L
17 May
@ Albacete II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ San Clemente
4–0
W
2 Apr
vs Manchego
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
0–0
D
22 Mar
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Quintanar del Rey and Toledo.
What is the prediction for Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
On our numbers Quintanar del Rey have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toledo 39%.
How many goals will there be in Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Our predicted score is Quintanar del Rey 1–1 Toledo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo?
Quintanar del Rey vs Toledo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
