Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.40 – our chance 58% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +39%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultToledo to win ✗69% · @1.40
Double chanceToledo or draw ✓92% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @2.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.74
Toledo vs Villarrubia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Villarrubia travel to face Toledo on Saturday 12 September in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Toledo are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 10 matches; Villarrubia are 11th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Toledo, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Quintanar del Rey, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Villarrubia, last 5: DDWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with San Clemente, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toledo 2.9 xG, Villarrubia 1.1 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toledo 69%, draw 22%, Villarrubia 8%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.40.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.40 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Toledo to win (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toledo 2–1 Villarrubia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toledo69%fair 1.44 · @1.40
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.60
Villarrubia8%fair 12.00 · @8.00
4.00Expected goals
2.87Toledo xG
1.13Villarrubia xG
58%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
2–08%
3–07%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: Toledo 2.9 – 1.1 Villarrubia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toledo to win✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Double chance
Toledo or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
2.40 ▲
Draw no bet
Toledo (draw no bet)
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Toledo -1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Toledo to score first
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Toledo ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toledo / FT Toledo✗
51%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.74
–
Recent results
Toledo – last 6
WLDWWD
6 Sep
@ Quintanar del Rey
4–2
W
24 May
vs Albacete II
0–1
L
17 May
@ Albacete II
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ San Clemente
4–0
W
2 Apr
vs Manchego
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ Villarrobledo
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Villarrubia – last 6
DDWLDW
5 Sep
vs San Clemente
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Azuqueca
2–2
D
2 Apr
vs Tarancón
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ San Clemente
1–2
L
1 Mar
@ Illescas
0–0
D
21 Feb
vs Manchego
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toledo and Villarrubia.
Our pick is Toledo to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Toledo vs Villarrubia?
On our numbers Toledo have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villarrubia 8%.
How many goals will there be in Toledo vs Villarrubia?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toledo vs Villarrubia?
Our predicted score is Toledo 2–1 Villarrubia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Toledo vs Villarrubia?
Toledo vs Villarrubia (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
