Value bet: Villarrobledo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVillarrubia to win ✗44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.24
Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Villarrubia v Villarrobledo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18. In the table, Villarrubia are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Villarrobledo are 5th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Villarrubia, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Toledo, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Villarrobledo, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Quintanar del Rey, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Villarrobledo, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Villarrubia.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Villarrobledo 1–0 Villarrubia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villarrubia 0.9 xG, Villarrobledo 0.6 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villarrubia 44%, draw 25%, Villarrobledo 31%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Villarrobledo to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (54%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villarrubia 0–0 Villarrobledo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villarrubia44%fair 2.29 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.80
Villarrobledo31%fair 3.18 · @3.50
1.50Expected goals
0.85Villarrubia xG
0.65Villarrobledo xG
46%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–022%
1–019%
0–114%
1–112%
2–08%
2–15%
From our goals model: Villarrubia 0.9 – 0.6 Villarrobledo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
On our numbers Villarrubia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Villarrobledo 31%.
How many goals will there be in Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Our predicted score is Villarrubia 0–0 Villarrobledo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo?
Villarrubia vs Villarrobledo (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
