Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
1
Value bet: Colón to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultColón to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓7% · fair 14.00
Colón vs La Luz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Monday 17 August: Colón v La Luz in the Segunda División. In the table, Colón are 3rd, among the top four, on 39 points after 25 matches; La Luz are 9th (lower half) with 34.
Current form
Colón, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cerrito, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
La Luz, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Fenix, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Colón 1.1 xG, La Luz 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Colón 39%, draw 25%, La Luz 36%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Colón to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Colón 1–1 La Luz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Colón39%fair 2.56 · @3.10
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
La Luz36%fair 2.74 · @2.30
2.06Expected goals
1.06Colón xG
1.01La Luz xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–114%
1–013%
0–113%
0–013%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Colón 1.1 – 1.0 La Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Colón to win✓
39%
2.56
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Colón (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
La Luz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Colón to score first✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
7%
14.00
–
Recent results
Colón – last 6
WLLWWD
8 Aug
vs Cerrito
1–0
W
3 Aug
@ Atenas
1–4
L
25 Jul
vs Paysandu
2–3
L
11 Jul
@ Sportivo Huracan
2–0
W
6 Jul
vs Uruguay Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Jun
@ Oriental
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
La Luz – last 6
DLWWLD
8 Aug
@ Fenix
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Rentistas
2–5
L
26 Jul
@ Miramar
1–0
W
13 Jul
vs Tacuarembo
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Plaza Colonia
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ CA River Plate
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colón and La Luz.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Colón vs La Luz?
On our numbers Colón have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and La Luz 36%.
How many goals will there be in Colón vs La Luz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Colón vs La Luz?
Our predicted score is Colón 1–1 La Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Colón vs La Luz?
Colón vs La Luz (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
