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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Nations v Diarra: numbers & prediction

CAF Confederation Cup · Africa · Kwame Kyei sports complex

Nations

LWLWW
1–1
FT

Diarra

WLWLW
Nations 24%Draw 55%Diarra 21% Expected goals 0.52 – 0.48
79%
Betarazi pick

Nations or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.35Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 2.62 – our chance 55% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +45%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✓55% · @2.62
Double chanceNations or draw ✓79% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗37% · fair 2.72

Nations vs Diarra: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 13 September the CAF Confederation Cup brings Nations against Diarra at Kwame Kyei sports complex. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.

Current form

Nations, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Diarra, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Diarra, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Nations, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (5 Sep 2026) it ended Diarra 1–0 Nations.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Nations 0.5 xG, Diarra 0.5 xG – a total near 1.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 92% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Nations 24%, draw 55%, Diarra 21%.
  • Lower-risk option: Nations or draw (79%) at 1.35.
  • GG/NG: NG (57%) at 1.62.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 55%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Nations or draw (79%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.26, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nations 0–0 Diarra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Nations24%fair 4.19 · @2.45
Draw55%fair 1.81 · @2.62
Diarra21%fair 4.80 · @2.90
1.00Expected goals
0.52Nations xG
0.48Diarra xG
43%Both score
8%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–037%
1–019%
0–118%
1–19%
2–05%
0–24%

From our goals model: Nations 0.5 – 0.5 Diarra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✓55%1.812.62 ▲
Double chanceNations or draw ✓79%1.261.35 ▲
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗57%1.751.62
Draw no betNations (draw no bet)53%1.87–
Asian handicapDiarra +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74%1.36–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓92%1.09–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓98%1.02–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓100%1.00–
First team to scoreNo goal ✗37%2.72–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓68%1.48–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✓42%2.40–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗37%2.72–

Recent results

Nations – last 6

LWLWWL
5 Sep@ Diarra0–1L
24 May@ Karela1–0W
17 Mayvs Vision0–1L
6 May@ Heart of Lions1–0W
17 Apr@ Aduana Stars1–0W
5 Apr@ Bibiani Gold Stars1–2L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Diarra – last 6

WLWLWL
5 Sepvs Nations1–0W
13 Junvs Stade Malien Bamako0–2L
9 Jun@ US Bougouba6–2W
5 Junvs Djoliba1–2L
2 Jun@ Afrique Football Élite1–0W
22 May@ Réal Bamako1–2L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

5 Sep 2026Diarra v Nations1–0
Nations vs Diarra head-to-head page →

More CAF Confederation Cup predictions

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FT CS Sfaxien2 Shooting Stars0 163%1.50X22%3.30215%7.00 0.9–0.1xG 1CS Sfaxien to win 63%@1.50 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nations vs Diarra?

Our pick is Nations or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.

Who will win Nations vs Diarra?

On our numbers Nations have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Diarra 21%.

How many goals will there be in Nations vs Diarra?

We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Nations vs Diarra?

Our predicted score is Nations 0–0 Diarra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.

When is Nations vs Diarra?

Nations vs Diarra (CAF Confederation Cup) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Kwame Kyei sports complex.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.