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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

PSM Makassar v Persebaya Surabaya: numbers & prediction

Liga 1 · Indonesia · Gelora BJ Habibie

PSM Makassar

WLDDL
1–0
FT

Persebaya Surabaya

DWDWD
PSM Makassar 28%Draw 23%Persebaya Surabaya 49% Expected goals 1.27 – 1.73
58%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.73 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.75Odds

Picks by market

ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✗49% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.56

PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Persebaya Surabaya travel to face PSM Makassar on Thursday 22 October in the Liga 1, with Gelora BJ Habibie the venue – the ball rolls at 09:30 WAT. In the table, PSM Makassar are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; Persebaya Surabaya are 8th (upper half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

PSM Makassar, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over PSIM Yogyakarta, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Persebaya Surabaya, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with PSS Sleman, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Persebaya Surabaya, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for PSM Makassar.

Head to head

When they last met (25 Feb 2026) it ended Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give PSM Makassar 1.3 xG, Persebaya Surabaya 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 58%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – PSM Makassar 28%, draw 23%, Persebaya Surabaya 49%.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: PSM Makassar 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

PSM Makassar28%fair 3.51 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.10
Persebaya Surabaya49%fair 2.05 · @2.05
3.00Expected goals
1.27PSM Makassar xG
1.73Persebaya Surabaya xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–06%

From our goals model: PSM Makassar 1.3 – 1.7 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✗49%2.052.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗58%1.731.75
Draw no betPersebaya Surabaya (draw no bet) ✗63%1.58–
Asian handicapPSM Makassar +1 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.50–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80%1.25–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗58%1.73–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.23–
First team to scorePersebaya Surabaya to score first ✗55%1.82–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓39%2.54–
Half-time / full-timeHT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya ✗29%3.40–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.56–

Recent results

PSM Makassar – last 6

WLDDLL
16 Oct@ PSIM Yogyakarta2–1W
11 Oct@ PSS Sleman0–3L
19 Sepvs Persita2–2D
13 Sepvs Arema FC3–3D
6 Sep@ Persib Bandung1–3L
23 May@ Persepam Madura Utd0–2L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Persebaya Surabaya – last 6

DWDWDD
18 Octvs PSS Sleman2–2D
9 Oct@ Isenmulang Kalteng1–0W
19 Sepvs Garudayaksa1–1D
13 Sepvs PSIM Yogyakarta1–0W
5 Sep@ Bhayangkara FC1–1D
6 Aug@ Persib Bandung1–1D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

25 Feb 2026Persebaya Surabaya v PSM Makassar1–0
PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya head-to-head page →

Liga 1 table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Persija9702+1121
2Dewa United9621+420
3Bali United9612+1719
4Persepam Madura Utd9612+619
5Persib Bandung9513+616
6Persita8431+615
7Java United9432+313
8Persebaya Surabaya9342+213
9Bhayangkara FC9261+112
10Garudayaksa9324-411
11Pusamania Borneo8314-210
12PSM Makassar9243-410
13Persik Kediri9315-510
14Arema FC9234-39
15Isenmulang Kalteng9225-126
16PSS Sleman9126-55
17PSIM Yogyakarta9126-85
18Persijap9027-132

More Liga 1 predictions

League hub
FT Persik Kediri2 PSS Sleman1 156%1.80X24%3.30220%3.90 1.6–0.9xG 1XPersik Kediri or draw 80%@1.22 ✓
FT Persepam Madura Utd1 Persib Bandung0 117%4.20X22%3.30261%1.75 1.1–2.1xG 2Persib Bandung to win 61%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?

On our numbers PSM Makassar have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Persebaya Surabaya 49%.

How many goals will there be in PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Our predicted score is PSM Makassar 1–1 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya?

PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora BJ Habibie.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.