Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Nova Iguaçu to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSampaio Corrêa RJ to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.67
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.58
Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sampaio Corrêa RJ welcome Nova Iguaçu to Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida for a Copa Rio fixture on Wednesday 2 September (18:45 WAT).
Current form
Sampaio Corrêa RJ, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Nova Iguaçu, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Nova Iguaçu, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sampaio Corrêa RJ, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Nova Iguaçu, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Sampaio Corrêa RJ.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Aug 2026) it ended Nova Iguaçu 2–0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ. The last 2 head-to-heads: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0 wins, Nova Iguaçu 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0.9 xG, Nova Iguaçu 0.9 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sampaio Corrêa RJ 40%, draw 23%, Nova Iguaçu 37%.
Price worth noting: Nova Iguaçu to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–0 Nova Iguaçu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sampaio Corrêa RJ40%fair 2.50 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Nova Iguaçu37%fair 2.67 · @3.20
1.81Expected goals
0.93Sampaio Corrêa RJ xG
0.88Nova Iguaçu xG
38%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0.9 – 0.9 Nova Iguaçu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
On our numbers Sampaio Corrêa RJ have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nova Iguaçu 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Our predicted score is Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–0 Nova Iguaçu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu (Copa Rio) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Rio · Brazil · Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida
