Value bet: Draw @ 3.10 – our chance 53% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +63%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗53% · @3.10
Double chanceValenzana or draw ✗78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Valenzana vs Alessandria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 6 September the Serie D Girone A brings Valenzana against Alessandria. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Valenzana are 17th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 11 matches; Alessandria are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 24 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Valenzana, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Chisola, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valenzana 1.2 xG, Alessandria 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valenzana 25%, draw 53%, Alessandria 22%.
Lower-risk option: Valenzana or draw (78%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Valenzana or draw (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.28, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valenzana 1–1 Alessandria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valenzana25%fair 3.98 · @2.40
Draw53%fair 1.90 · @3.10
Alessandria22%fair 4.51 · @2.70
2.43Expected goals
1.24Valenzana xG
1.18Alessandria xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Valenzana 1.2 – 1.2 Alessandria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
53%
1.90
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Valenzana or draw✗
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
–
Draw no bet
Valenzana (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Alessandria +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Valenzana to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valenzana / FT Valenzana✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Valenzana – last 6
LLWWWL
3 May
vs Chisola
2–3
L
26 Apr
@ Cairese
0–4
L
19 Apr
vs Lavagnese
2–0
W
2 Apr
@ Città di Varese
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ligorna
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Vado
1–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alessandria
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valenzana and Alessandria.
What is the prediction for Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Our pick is Valenzana or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Valenzana vs Alessandria?
On our numbers Valenzana have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Alessandria 22%.
How many goals will there be in Valenzana vs Alessandria?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Our predicted score is Valenzana 1–1 Alessandria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valenzana vs Alessandria?
Valenzana vs Alessandria (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
