Value bet: Nissa to win @ 1.94 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNissa to win ✓62% · @1.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · fair 1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Nissa vs CastrumFavara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Nissa welcome CastrumFavara for a Serie D Girone I fixture on Sunday 1 November (14:30 WAT). In the table, Nissa are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; CastrumFavara are 15th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Nissa, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sambiase, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
CastrumFavara, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Reggina, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nissa 1.8 xG, CastrumFavara 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nissa 62%, draw 17%, CastrumFavara 22%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Nissa to win @1.94 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nissa 2–0 CastrumFavara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nissa62%fair 1.61 · @1.94
Draw17%fair 6.04 · @3.55
CastrumFavara22%fair 4.65 · @3.39
2.62Expected goals
1.76Nissa xG
0.86CastrumFavara xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Nissa 1.8 – 0.9 CastrumFavara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nissa to win✓
62%
1.61
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.20
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Draw no bet
Nissa (draw no bet)✓
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
CastrumFavara +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Nissa to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Nissa ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nissa / FT Nissa✓
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Nissa – last 6
LLDDLL
25 Oct
@ Sambiase
0–1
L
18 Oct
vs Reggina
1–2
L
11 Oct
@ Ragusa
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Igea Virtus
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Vibonese
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Calcio Avola
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
CastrumFavara – last 6
DLWLLL
28 Oct
vs Reggina
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Trapani 1905
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Igea Virtus
3–2
W
4 Oct
@ Vigor Lamezia
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Calcio Avola
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Modica
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nissa and CastrumFavara.
What is the prediction for Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
On our numbers Nissa have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 17% and CastrumFavara 22%.
How many goals will there be in Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
Our predicted score is Nissa 2–0 CastrumFavara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nissa vs CastrumFavara?
Nissa vs CastrumFavara (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
