Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Coriano to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCoriano to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chanceCoriano or draw ✗81% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.17
Coriano vs Pontedera: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pontedera travel to face Coriano on Wednesday 14 October in the Serie D Girone D – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Coriano are 15th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Pontedera are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Coriano, last 5: DWLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Crema, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Pontedera, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Lentigione, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Coriano, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.0 for Pontedera.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Coriano 1.7 xG, Pontedera 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Coriano 59%, draw 22%, Pontedera 19%.
Lower-risk option: Coriano or draw (81%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: Coriano to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Coriano or draw (81%, odds 1.28 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Coriano 1–0 Pontedera. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Coriano59%fair 1.71 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.25
Pontedera19%fair 5.27 · @3.60
2.48Expected goals
1.67Coriano xG
0.81Pontedera xG
45%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Coriano 1.7 – 0.8 Pontedera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coriano to win✗
59%
1.71
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Coriano or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Draw no bet
Coriano (draw no bet)✗
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Pontedera +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Coriano to score first✗
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coriano / FT Coriano✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.17
–
Recent results
Coriano – last 6
DWLLDL
11 Oct
vs Crema
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Oltrepò
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Lentigione
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Cittadella Vis Modena
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Città di Varese
1–1
D
10 May
@ Crema
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Pontedera – last 6
LLLLLL
11 Oct
@ Lentigione
0–2
L
4 Oct
vs Cittadella Vis Modena
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Città di Varese
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Pro Sesto
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs Pro Patria
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ Castellanzese
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coriano and Pontedera.
Our pick is Coriano or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Coriano vs Pontedera?
On our numbers Coriano have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pontedera 19%.
How many goals will there be in Coriano vs Pontedera?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coriano vs Pontedera?
Our predicted score is Coriano 1–0 Pontedera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Coriano vs Pontedera?
Coriano vs Pontedera (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
