Value bet: Gavorrano to win @ 2.70 – our chance 45% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultGavorrano to win45% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.44
Gavorrano vs Lucchese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Sunday 15 November: Gavorrano v Lucchese in the Serie D Girone E. In the table, Gavorrano are 4th, among the top four, on 21 points after 11 matches; Lucchese are 6th (upper half) with 18. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Gavorrano, last 5: DWDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Mezzolara, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Lucchese, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over San Donato Tavarnelle, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gavorrano 1.8 xG, Lucchese 1.3 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gavorrano 45%, draw 23%, Lucchese 32%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Gavorrano to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 45%.
Betarazi verdict
The Betarazi pick is Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gavorrano 1–1 Lucchese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gavorrano45%fair 2.22 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.30
Lucchese32%fair 3.16 · @2.30
3.04Expected goals
1.79Gavorrano xG
1.25Lucchese xG
63%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–09%
2–08%
1–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Gavorrano 1.8 – 1.3 Lucchese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gavorrano
Lucchese
Attack vs Serie D Girone E average
+6%
+36%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
+29%
Our expected goals here
2.11
1.15
Our own ratings from every Serie D Girone E result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gavorrano to win
45%
2.22
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
63%
1.59
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Gavorrano (draw no bet)
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Lucchese +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.79
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
Gavorrano to score first
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
39%
2.57
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gavorrano / FT Gavorrano
31%
3.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.44
–
Recent results
Gavorrano – last 6
DWDDDD
8 Nov
@ Mezzolara
1–1
D
1 Nov
vs Scandicci
3–2
W
25 Oct
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Prato
1–1
D
11 Oct
vs Terranuova Traiana
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Flaminia
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Lucchese – last 6
WDLDLD
8 Nov
vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1–0
W
4 Nov
vs Sestri Levante
1–1
D
1 Nov
@ Terranuova Traiana
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Sasso Marconi Zola
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Ternana
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gavorrano and Lucchese.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
On our numbers Gavorrano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lucchese 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
Our predicted score is Gavorrano 1–1 Lucchese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Gavorrano vs Lucchese?
Gavorrano vs Lucchese (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
