Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.02 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNocerina to win ✗39% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.02
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.01
Gravina vs Nocerina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Sunday 1 November: Gravina v Nocerina in the Serie D Girone H. In the table, Gravina are 4th, among the top four, on 20 points after 11 matches; Nocerina are 12th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Gravina, last 5: DDDLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Ebolitana, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Nocerina, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Gladiator, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gravina 1.3 xG, Nocerina 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gravina 37%, draw 24%, Nocerina 39%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.02.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.02 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gravina 1–1 Nocerina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gravina37%fair 2.71 · @2.55
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.95
Nocerina39%fair 2.58 · @2.70
2.64Expected goals
1.30Gravina xG
1.34Nocerina xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gravina 1.3 – 1.3 Nocerina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nocerina to win✗
39%
2.58
2.70
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.02 ▲
Draw no bet
Nocerina (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Gravina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.56
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Nocerina to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nocerina / FT Nocerina✗
22%
4.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.01
–
Recent results
Gravina – last 6
DDDLWL
25 Oct
@ Ebolitana
2–2
D
18 Oct
vs Francavilla
1–1
D
11 Oct
@ Nardò
1–1
D
7 Oct
@ Virtus Francavilla
0–3
L
4 Oct
vs Virtus Francavilla
4–2
W
27 Sep
@ Real Normanna
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nocerina – last 6
LLLDWW
25 Oct
vs Gladiator
1–2
L
18 Oct
@ Martina Franca
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Brindisi
0–1
L
7 Oct
vs Turris
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Melfi
1–0
W
27 Sep
vs USD Palmese
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gravina and Nocerina.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Gravina vs Nocerina?
On our numbers Gravina have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nocerina 39%.
How many goals will there be in Gravina vs Nocerina?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gravina vs Nocerina?
Our predicted score is Gravina 1–1 Nocerina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gravina vs Nocerina?
Gravina vs Nocerina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
