Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultPaganese to win ✗55% · @1.90
Double chancePaganese or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.56
Paganese vs Afragolese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Paganese v Afragolese in the Serie D Girone G, played at Stadio Marcello Torre. In the table, Paganese are 10th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Afragolese are 8th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Paganese, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Latte Dolce, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Afragolese, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sarnese, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Paganese, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Afragolese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paganese 1.6 xG, Afragolese 0.9 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paganese 55%, draw 25%, Afragolese 20%.
Lower-risk option: Paganese or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Paganese or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paganese 1–0 Afragolese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paganese55%fair 1.83 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.25
Afragolese20%fair 4.93 · @3.50
2.51Expected goals
1.62Paganese xG
0.88Afragolese xG
47%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Paganese 1.6 – 0.9 Afragolese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
55%
1.83
1.90
Double chance
Paganese or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
–
Draw no bet
Paganese (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Afragolese +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Paganese to score first✗
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.56
–
Recent results
Paganese – last 6
WWWLWL
12 Sep
@ Latte Dolce
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs Unipomezia
2–1
W
17 May
@ Martina Franca
1–0
W
3 May
@ Città di Fasano
0–6
L
26 Apr
vs Nola 1925
5–0
W
19 Apr
@ Gravina
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Afragolese – last 6
DDLLDD
12 Sep
vs Sarnese
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Gelbison
0–0
D
3 May
@ Francavilla
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs Gravina
0–6
L
19 Apr
vs Real Normanna
0–0
D
2 Apr
vs Virtus Francavilla
2–2
D
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Afragolese.
What is the prediction for Paganese vs Afragolese?
Our pick is Paganese or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paganese vs Afragolese?
On our numbers Paganese have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Afragolese 20%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Afragolese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paganese vs Afragolese?
Our predicted score is Paganese 1–0 Afragolese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Paganese vs Afragolese?
Paganese vs Afragolese (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
