Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl Talaba to win ✓57% · @1.83
Double chanceAl Talaba or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Al Talaba vs Newroz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Newroz travel to face Al Talaba on Wednesday 26 August in the Iraqi League, with Al Talaba Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Al Talaba are 11th, lower half, on 16 points after 13 matches; Newroz are 2nd (among the top four) with 26.
Current form
Al Talaba, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Duhok, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Newroz, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Gharraf, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Newroz, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Al Talaba.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al Talaba 2.1 xG, Newroz 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 50% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al Talaba 57%, draw 25%, Newroz 17%.
Lower-risk option: Al Talaba or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Al Talaba to win (57%, odds 1.83 – longer than our fair 1.75, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al Talaba 2–1 Newroz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al Talaba57%fair 1.75 · @1.83
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.20
Newroz17%fair 5.72 · @3.90
3.21Expected goals
2.09Al Talaba xG
1.12Newroz xG
50%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Al Talaba 2.1 – 1.1 Newroz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Talaba to win✓
57%
1.75
1.83
Double chance
Al Talaba or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Al Talaba (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Newroz +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Al Talaba to score first✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Al Talaba ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Talaba / FT Al Talaba✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Al Talaba – last 6
DLDDDL
22 Aug
@ Duhok
3–3
D
15 Aug
@ Diyala
1–2
L
1 Jun
vs Al Karkh
1–1
D
28 May
@ Al Minaa Basra
1–1
D
19 May
vs Al-Karma
1–1
D
5 May
vs Al Zawra'a
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newroz – last 6
LDLDWW
22 Aug
@ Gharraf
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
3–3
D
1 Jun
@ Naft
1–2
L
27 May
vs Mosul
1–1
D
20 May
vs Zakho
2–1
W
27 Apr
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Talaba and Newroz.
Our pick is Al Talaba to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Al Talaba vs Newroz?
On our numbers Al Talaba have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Newroz 17%.
How many goals will there be in Al Talaba vs Newroz?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Talaba vs Newroz?
Our predicted score is Al Talaba 2–1 Newroz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Al Talaba vs Newroz?
Al Talaba vs Newroz (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Al Talaba Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
