Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultErbil to win ✗42% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Erbil vs Al-Karma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al-Karma travel to face Erbil on Monday 14 September in the Iraqi League, with Franso Hariri Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Erbil are 7th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Al-Karma are 1st (leading the league) with 30.
Current form
Erbil, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Diyala, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Al-Karma, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Naft, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Erbil 1.1 xG, Al-Karma 1.0 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Erbil 42%, draw 23%, Al-Karma 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Erbil 1–0 Al-Karma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Erbil42%fair 2.37 · @2.40
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.00
Al-Karma34%fair 2.90 · @2.75
2.14Expected goals
1.15Erbil xG
1.00Al-Karma xG
45%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Erbil 1.1 – 1.0 Al-Karma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win✗
42%
2.37
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Draw no bet
Erbil (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Al-Karma +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Erbil to score first✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.44
–
Recent results
Erbil – last 6
WDWWDW
8 Sep
vs Diyala
2–0
W
4 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Al Minaa Basra
2–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Karkh
1–0
W
21 Aug
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Al Kahrabaa
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al-Karma – last 6
WWWDWW
9 Sep
vs Naft
3–0
W
3 Sep
@ Diyala
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Karbala
2–0
W
26 Aug
@ Al Kahrabaa
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Al Shorta
2–1
W
27 May
vs Diyala
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erbil and Al-Karma.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Erbil vs Al-Karma?
On our numbers Erbil have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Al-Karma 34%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Al-Karma?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erbil vs Al-Karma?
Our predicted score is Erbil 1–0 Al-Karma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Erbil vs Al-Karma?
Erbil vs Al-Karma (Iraqi League) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
