Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Newroz to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNewroz to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceNewroz or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.85
Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 16 October the Iraqi League brings Newroz against Al Minaa Basra. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Newroz are 2nd, among the top four, on 26 points after 13 matches; Al Minaa Basra are 9th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Newroz, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Zakho, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 6 clean sheets in that run.
Al Minaa Basra, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Ghaz Al Shamal, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Newroz, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.8 for Al Minaa Basra.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Apr 2026) it ended Newroz 4–1 Al Minaa Basra.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newroz 1.5 xG, Al Minaa Basra 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newroz 59%, draw 21%, Al Minaa Basra 20%.
Lower-risk option: Newroz or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Newroz to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Newroz or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newroz 1–0 Al Minaa Basra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newroz59%fair 1.71 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.10
Al Minaa Basra20%fair 4.94 · @3.70
2.14Expected goals
1.46Newroz xG
0.69Al Minaa Basra xG
40%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Newroz 1.5 – 0.7 Al Minaa Basra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our pick is Newroz or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
On our numbers Newroz have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Al Minaa Basra 20%.
How many goals will there be in Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our predicted score is Newroz 1–0 Al Minaa Basra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
