Value bet: Moreton City Excelsior to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMoreton City Excelsior to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗69% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.73
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
08:00 WAT, Saturday 29 August: Moreton City Excelsior v Gold Coast Knights in the Queensland NPL, played at Wolter Park.
Current form
Moreton City Excelsior, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Lions, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Gold Coast Knights, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Brisbane Roar II, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Jul 2026) it ended Gold Coast Knights 2–1 Moreton City Excelsior. The last 2 head-to-heads: Moreton City Excelsior 1 win, Gold Coast Knights 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Moreton City Excelsior 2.2 xG, Gold Coast Knights 1.4 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 69% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Moreton City Excelsior 60%, draw 15%, Gold Coast Knights 25%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.35.
Price worth noting: Moreton City Excelsior to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Moreton City Excelsior 2–1 Gold Coast Knights. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Moreton City Excelsior60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw15%fair 6.63 · @3.80
Gold Coast Knights25%fair 3.99 · @3.00
3.60Expected goals
2.24Moreton City Excelsior xG
1.36Gold Coast Knights xG
69%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Moreton City Excelsior 2.2 – 1.4 Gold Coast Knights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Moreton City Excelsior to win✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
69%
1.45
1.35
Draw no bet
Moreton City Excelsior (draw no bet)
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Gold Coast Knights +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.77
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
First team to score
Moreton City Excelsior to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Moreton City Excelsior ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Moreton City Excelsior / FT Moreton City Excelsior✗
What is the prediction for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
On our numbers Moreton City Excelsior have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Gold Coast Knights 25%.
How many goals will there be in Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
Our predicted score is Moreton City Excelsior 2–1 Gold Coast Knights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights?
Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights (Queensland NPL) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 08:00 (West Africa Time) at Wolter Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Queensland NPL · Australia · Wolter Park
