Kwara United v Nasarawa United Prediction & Expected Goals (23 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultKwara United to win ✓62% · fair 1.61

Double chanceEither team to win ✓89% · fair 1.12

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.74

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.93

Kwara United vs Nasarawa United: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Nasarawa United travel to face Kwara United on Wednesday 23 September in the NPFL, with Kwara Sports Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Kwara United are 12th, lower half, on 50 points after 38 matches; Nasarawa United are 5th (upper half) with 56.

Current form

Kwara United, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Warri Wolves, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Nasarawa United, last 5: DLWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Rivers United, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Kwara United 1.6 xG, Nasarawa United 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 43%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Kwara United 62%, draw 11%, Nasarawa United 27%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kwara United 1–0 Nasarawa United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Kwara United62%fair 1.61

Draw11%fair 9.09

Nasarawa United27%fair 3.70

2.38Expected goals

1.56Kwara United xG

0.82Nasarawa United xG

43%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%

1–112%

2–011%

0–09%

2–19%

0–18%

From our goals model: Kwara United 1.6 – 0.8 Nasarawa United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Kwara United to win ✓	62%	1.61	–
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	89%	1.12	–
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	57%	1.74	–
Draw no bet	Kwara United (draw no bet) ✓	70%	1.44	–
Asian handicap	Nasarawa United +1 (Asian handicap)	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	69%	1.46	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.74	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	78%	1.28	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
First team to score	Kwara United to score first	59%	1.68	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	44%	2.25	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Kwara United / FT Kwara United ✗	33%	3.02	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	14%	6.93	–

Kwara United – last 6

LWLDLW

20 Sep	@ Warri Wolves	0–1	L
13 Sep	vs Katsina United	3–0	W
6 Sep	@ Plateau United	0–1	L
30 Aug	vs Kano Pillars	2–2	D
24 May	@ Bayelsa United	0–4	L
19 Apr	vs Barau FC	2–1	W

1.2Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Nasarawa United – last 6

DLWLDW

20 Sep	vs Rivers United	1–1	D
18 Sep	@ Enugu Rangers	1–2	L
6 Sep	vs Bendel Insurance	1–0	W
30 Aug	@ Barau FC	1–3	L
17 Jun	vs Ikorodu City	1–1	D
11 Jun	vs Plateau United	2–1	W

1.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Enugu Rangers	38	19	11	8	+20	68
2	Rivers United	38	19	10	9	+13	67
3	Shooting Stars	38	18	6	14	+1	60
4	Ikorodu City	38	16	10	12	+4	58
5	Nasarawa United	38	16	8	14	+3	56
6	Abia Warriors	38	16	7	15	-3	55
7	Bendel Insurance	37	13	14	10	+5	53
8	Barau FC	38	13	13	12	+4	52
9	Katsina United	37	14	10	13	-2	52
10	Kano Pillars	38	15	6	17	-2	51
11	Plateau United	38	15	5	18	-1	50
12	Kwara United	38	13	11	14	-1	50
13	Enyimba	38	13	10	15	+2	49
14	Kun Khalifat FC	38	13	10	15	-1	49
15	Warri Wolves	38	13	10	15	-5	49
16	Niger Tornadoes	38	13	9	16	+1	48
17	Remo Stars	38	14	5	19	-5	47
18	El Kanemi Warriors	38	13	8	17	-16	47
19	Bayelsa United	38	11	10	17	-5	43
20	Wikki Tourist	38	9	13	16	-12	40

Team

Pts

+20

+13

-3

-2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-5

-5

-16

-5

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance.

Who will win Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

On our numbers Kwara United have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Nasarawa United 27%.

How many goals will there be in Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

Our predicted score is Kwara United 1–0 Nasarawa United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

Kwara United vs Nasarawa United (NPFL) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Kwara Sports Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Kwara United v Nasarawa United: numbers & prediction