Mathare United 33%Draw 24%APS Bomet 43%Expected goals 0.96 – 1.15
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: APS Bomet to win @ 3.00 – our chance 43% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAPS Bomet to win ✗43% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.20
Mathare United vs APS Bomet: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
APS Bomet travel to face Mathare United on Saturday 10 October in the FKF Premier League – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Mathare United are 16th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 6 matches; APS Bomet are 13th (lower half) with 6. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mathare United, last 5: LDWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ulinzi Stars, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
APS Bomet, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Murang'a SEAL, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours APS Bomet, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Mathare United.
Head to head
When they last met (10 May 2026) it ended Mathare United 0–2 APS Bomet.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mathare United 1.0 xG, APS Bomet 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mathare United 33%, draw 24%, APS Bomet 43%.
Price worth noting: APS Bomet to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mathare United 0–1 APS Bomet. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mathare United33%fair 3.04 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @2.88
APS Bomet43%fair 2.35 · @3.00
2.12Expected goals
0.96Mathare United xG
1.15APS Bomet xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mathare United 1.0 – 1.2 APS Bomet expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and APS Bomet 43%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Our predicted score is Mathare United 0–1 APS Bomet, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mathare United vs APS Bomet?
Mathare United vs APS Bomet (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
