Value bet: Draw @ 2.88 – our chance 54% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +56%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗54% · @2.88
Double chanceMombasa Elite or draw ✗78% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗11% · fair 8.95
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 14 October the FKF Premier League brings Mombasa Elite against Homeboyz. Kick-off: 13:00 WAT. In the table, Mombasa Elite are 18th, in the drop zone, on 1 points after 6 matches; Homeboyz are 17th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Current form
Mombasa Elite, last 5: LWDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Migori Youth, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Homeboyz, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to AFC Leopards, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Mombasa Elite, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Homeboyz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mombasa Elite 1.1 xG, Homeboyz 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mombasa Elite 23%, draw 54%, Homeboyz 22%.
Lower-risk option: Mombasa Elite or draw (78%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Draw @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mombasa Elite or draw (78%, odds 1.36 – longer than our fair 1.29, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mombasa Elite 1–1 Homeboyz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mombasa Elite23%fair 4.27 · @2.60
Draw54%fair 1.84 · @2.88
Homeboyz22%fair 4.49 · @2.70
2.19Expected goals
1.11Mombasa Elite xG
1.08Homeboyz xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 1.1 – 1.1 Homeboyz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
54%
1.84
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Mombasa Elite or draw✗
78%
1.29
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Draw no bet
Mombasa Elite (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Homeboyz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Mombasa Elite to score first✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mombasa Elite / FT Mombasa Elite✗
20%
4.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
11%
8.95
–
Recent results
Mombasa Elite – last 6
LWDDWL
2 Oct
@ Migori Youth
0–2
L
1 Oct
vs Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs Police
0–0
D
13 Jun
@ Naivas
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Nzoia Sugar
1–0
W
1 Jun
@ Luanda Villa
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Homeboyz – last 6
LDDLLD
2 Oct
@ AFC Leopards
0–2
L
31 May
@ Police
1–1
D
23 May
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–2
D
10 May
@ Murang'a SEAL
0–1
L
3 May
vs GOR Mahia
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ KCB
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz.
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Our pick is Mombasa Elite or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Homeboyz 22%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Our predicted score is Mombasa Elite 1–1 Homeboyz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
