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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Santa Lucía v Naxxar Lions: numbers & prediction

Challenge League · Malta

Santa Lucía

DDDDD
1–1
FT

Naxxar Lions

WWWLL
Santa Lucía 24%Draw 16%Naxxar Lions 60% Expected goals 0.91 – 1.71
60%
Betarazi pick

Naxxar Lions to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗

5/10Rating
1.85Odds

Picks by market

ResultNaxxar Lions to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗6% · fair 16.48

Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Naxxar Lions travel to face Santa Lucía on Saturday 24 October in the Challenge League – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Santa Lucía are 13th, lower half, on 6 points after 7 matches; Naxxar Lions are 3rd (among the top four) with 16.

Current form

Santa Lucía, last 5: DDDDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Fgura United, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Naxxar Lions, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Victoria Hotspurs, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Naxxar Lions, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Santa Lucía.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Santa Lucía 0.9 xG, Naxxar Lions 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Lucía 24%, draw 16%, Naxxar Lions 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Naxxar Lions to win (60%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.66, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Lucía 0–1 Naxxar Lions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Santa Lucía24%fair 4.17 · @3.40
Draw16%fair 6.40 · @3.60
Naxxar Lions60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
2.62Expected goals
0.91Santa Lucía xG
1.71Naxxar Lions xG
47%Both score
52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

From our goals model: Santa Lucía 0.9 – 1.7 Naxxar Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNaxxar Lions to win ✗60%1.661.85 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84%1.191.22
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗53%1.90–
Draw no betNaxxar Lions (draw no bet)72%1.40–
Asian handicapSanta Lucía +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓69%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74%1.36–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗52%1.941.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.37–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓87%1.14–
First team to scoreNaxxar Lions to score first ✗61%1.65–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.39–
Half-time / full-timeHT Naxxar Lions / FT Naxxar Lions ✗35%2.88–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗6%16.48–

Recent results

Santa Lucía – last 6

DDDDDD
17 Oct@ Fgura United0–0D
11 Octvs Zurrieq1–1D
18 Sep@ St. Andrews1–1D
12 Sepvs Vittoriosa Stars0–0D
6 Apr@ Mgarr United1–1D
8 Mar@ Vittoriosa Stars1–1D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Naxxar Lions – last 6

WWWLLD
18 Octvs Victoria Hotspurs1–0W
10 Oct@ Sirens3–2W
20 Sepvs Zebbug Rangers3–1W
12 Sep@ Pietà Hotspurs2–3L
10 Mayvs Mosta0–1L
15 Aprvs Valletta FC1–1D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Santa Lucía and Naxxar Lions.

Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions head-to-head page →

Challenge League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Tarxien Rainbows7610+919
2Swieqi United7511+516
3Naxxar Lions7511+516
4Fgura United7430+915
5Melita7412+513
6Pietà Hotspurs7403+212
7Mgarr United7313+110
8Zurrieq7313010
9Sirens7214-47
10Zebbug Rangers7214-67
11St. Andrews7214-77
12Attard7133-16
13Santa Lucía7061-26
14Vittoriosa Stars7133-36
15Victoria Hotspurs7205-36
16Gudja United7007-100

More Challenge League predictions

League hub
FT Gudja United1 Fgura United2 121%5.00X18%4.20261%1.48 0.8–1.7xG 2Fgura United to win 61%@1.48 ✓
FT Sirens1 Tarxien Rainbows2 129%2.90X20%3.60251%2.05 1.4–1.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 59%@1.67 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions?

Our pick is Naxxar Lions to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.

Who will win Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions?

On our numbers Santa Lucía have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Naxxar Lions 60%.

How many goals will there be in Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions?

Our predicted score is Santa Lucía 0–1 Naxxar Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions?

Santa Lucía vs Naxxar Lions (Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.