Value bet: Boca Juniors to win @ 3.30 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✗38% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.82
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:30 WAT, Wednesday 16 September: Sao Paulo v Boca Juniors in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: LLWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Palmeiras, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Boca Juniors, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Central Cordoba de Santiago, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Boca Juniors, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Sao Paulo.
Head to head
When they last met (9 Sep 2026) it ended Boca Juniors 1–0 Sao Paulo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 0.9 xG, Boca Juniors 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 38%, draw 25%, Boca Juniors 37%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Boca Juniors to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (53%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 0–0 Boca Juniors. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo38%fair 2.61 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
Boca Juniors37%fair 2.69 · @3.30
1.86Expected goals
0.94Sao Paulo xG
0.92Boca Juniors xG
47%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 0.9 – 0.9 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Boca Juniors 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 0–0 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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