Derry City 58%Draw 23%Dundalk 19%Expected goals 2.81 – 1.69
81%
Betarazi pick
Derry City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.73 – our chance 67% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDerry City to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceDerry City or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.49
Derry City vs Dundalk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derry City welcome Dundalk to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium for a FAI Cup fixture on Sunday 6 September (16:00 WAT).
Current form
Derry City, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Shamrock Rovers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Dundalk, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Drogheda United, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Head to head
When they last met (29 May 2026) it ended Dundalk 2–1 Derry City. The last 3 head-to-heads: Derry City 0 wins, Dundalk 1, draws 2. Those games averaged 3.7 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derry City 2.8 xG, Dundalk 1.7 xG – a total near 4.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 83% and GG at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derry City 58%, draw 23%, Dundalk 19%.
Lower-risk option: Derry City or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 67%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Derry City or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derry City 2–1 Dundalk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derry City58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.30
Dundalk19%fair 5.37 · @3.70
4.50Expected goals
2.81Derry City xG
1.69Dundalk xG
67%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
1–15%
4–15%
From our goals model: Derry City 2.8 – 1.7 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Derry City or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Derry City have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dundalk 19%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Dundalk?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Derry City 2–1 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City vs Dundalk (FAI Cup) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
