Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKarvan to win ✗42% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.54
Şahdağ vs Karvan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 9 September the Birinci Dasta brings Şahdağ against Karvan. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT. In the table, Şahdağ are 2nd, among the top four, on 15 points after 6 matches; Karvan are 4th (among the top four) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Şahdağ, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over MOIK, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Karvan, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Baku Sportinq, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Şahdağ, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Karvan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Şahdağ 1.0 xG, Karvan 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Şahdağ 36%, draw 23%, Karvan 42%.
Price worth noting: Şahdağ to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Şahdağ 1–1 Karvan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Şahdağ36%fair 2.80 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.20
Karvan42%fair 2.40 · @2.05
2.14Expected goals
1.01Şahdağ xG
1.13Karvan xG
43%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 1.0 – 1.1 Karvan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Karvan to win✗
42%
2.40
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
–
Draw no bet
Karvan (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Şahdağ +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Karvan to score first✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Karvan / FT Karvan✗
22%
4.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.54
–
Recent results
Şahdağ – last 6
WDWWWD
3 Sep
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 May
vs Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
5 May
vs Mingəçevir
2–0
W
29 Apr
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Zaqatala
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Karvan – last 6
WDLLLW
3 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
3–0
W
24 May
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
10 May
@ Turan
0–1
L
5 May
vs Neftchi Baku
0–3
L
27 Apr
@ Sabah FA
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs Kapaz
4–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and Karvan.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Şahdağ vs Karvan?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Karvan 42%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs Karvan?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs Karvan?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 1–1 Karvan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs Karvan?
Şahdağ vs Karvan (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
