12:30 WAT, Thursday 8 October: Səbail v Karvan in the Birinci Dasta, played at ASCO Arena. In the table, Səbail are 5th, upper half, on 12 points after 7 matches; Karvan are 4th (among the top four) with 13. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Səbail, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Baku Sportinq, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Karvan, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Zaqatala, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Səbail, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Karvan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Səbail 1.5 xG, Karvan 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Səbail 56%, draw 22%, Karvan 22%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Səbail to win (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Səbail 1–0 Karvan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Səbail56%fair 1.80 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.25
Karvan22%fair 4.51 · @3.75
2.33Expected goals
1.51Səbail xG
0.82Karvan xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Səbail 1.5 – 0.8 Karvan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Səbail to win✗
56%
1.80
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.83
Draw no bet
Səbail (draw no bet)
72%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Karvan +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Səbail to score first✓
59%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Səbail / FT Səbail✗
32%
3.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.99
–
Recent results
Səbail – last 6
WWDLWW
17 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
10 Sep
vs Mingəçevir
2–1
W
3 Sep
@ Xankəndi FK
1–1
D
22 May
@ Mingəçevir
1–4
L
6 May
@ Zaqatala
3–0
W
30 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
6–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Karvan – last 6
WLWDLL
16 Sep
vs Zaqatala
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Şahdağ
0–2
L
3 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
3–0
W
24 May
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
10 May
@ Turan
0–1
L
5 May
vs Neftchi Baku
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Səbail and Karvan.
Our pick is Səbail to win with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Səbail vs Karvan?
On our numbers Səbail have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Karvan 22%.
How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Karvan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Səbail vs Karvan?
Our predicted score is Səbail 1–0 Karvan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Səbail vs Karvan?
Səbail vs Karvan (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at ASCO Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
