Value bet: Aluminium Arak to win @ 3.62 – our chance 39% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAluminium Arak to win ✗39% · @3.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.51
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.08
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Fajr Sepasi welcome Aluminium Arak to Hafezieh Stadium for a Persian Gulf Pro League fixture on Tuesday 13 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, Fajr Sepasi are 7th, upper half, on 17 points after 11 matches; Aluminium Arak are 6th (upper half) with 17. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fajr Sepasi, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 1–6 defeat to Sepahan FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Aluminium Arak, last 5: DDWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Malavan, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fajr Sepasi 1.0 xG, Aluminium Arak 1.0 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fajr Sepasi 37%, draw 24%, Aluminium Arak 39%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.51.
Price worth noting: Aluminium Arak to win @3.62 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium Arak. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fajr Sepasi37%fair 2.70 · @2.01
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @2.90
Aluminium Arak39%fair 2.59 · @3.62
1.94Expected goals
0.96Fajr Sepasi xG
0.99Aluminium Arak xG
48%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–014%
0–114%
1–014%
1–114%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Fajr Sepasi 1.0 – 1.0 Aluminium Arak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aluminium Arak to win✗
39%
2.59
3.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.51
Draw no bet
Aluminium Arak (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Fajr Sepasi +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.58
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.07
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Aluminium Arak to score first
43%
2.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.08
–
Recent results
Fajr Sepasi – last 6
LLDDWD
8 Oct
@ Sepahan FC
1–6
L
7 Sep
@ Foolad FC
0–1
L
3 Sep
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs ZOB Ahan
0–0
D
24 Aug
@ Malavan
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Sanat Naft
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aluminium Arak – last 6
DDWDDD
8 Oct
vs Malavan
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Esteghlal FC
0–0
D
1 Sep
@ Gol Gohar
2–0
W
28 Aug
vs Kheybar Khorramabad
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Shams Azar Qazvin
2–2
D
18 Aug
vs Chadormalu SC
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fajr Sepasi and Aluminium Arak.
What is the prediction for Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
On our numbers Fajr Sepasi have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Aluminium Arak 39%.
How many goals will there be in Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Our predicted score is Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium Arak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak?
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Hafezieh Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
