Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vaqueros Reynosa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVaqueros Reynosa to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceVaqueros Reynosa or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.85
Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mineros de Fresnillo travel to face Vaqueros Reynosa on Sunday 27 September in the Liga Premier Serie A – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Vaqueros Reynosa are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Mineros de Fresnillo are 4th (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Vaqueros Reynosa, last 4: LDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to La Tribu de Cd. Juarez, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Mineros de Fresnillo, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Héroes de Zaci, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Vaqueros Reynosa, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Mineros de Fresnillo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vaqueros Reynosa 1.5 xG, Mineros de Fresnillo 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vaqueros Reynosa 60%, draw 23%, Mineros de Fresnillo 17%.
Lower-risk option: Vaqueros Reynosa or draw (83%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Vaqueros Reynosa to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vaqueros Reynosa or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.21, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Mineros de Fresnillo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vaqueros Reynosa60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.00
Mineros de Fresnillo17%fair 5.72 · @3.70
2.13Expected goals
1.49Vaqueros Reynosa xG
0.64Mineros de Fresnillo xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Vaqueros Reynosa 1.5 – 0.6 Mineros de Fresnillo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vaqueros Reynosa to win✓
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Vaqueros Reynosa or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.67
Draw no bet
Vaqueros Reynosa (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Mineros de Fresnillo +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Vaqueros Reynosa to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vaqueros Reynosa / FT Vaqueros Reynosa✓
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.85
–
Recent results
Vaqueros Reynosa – last 4
LDWW
20 Sep
@ La Tribu de Cd. Juarez
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Héroes de Zaci
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Guerreros
4–3
W
30 Aug
vs FC Santiago
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mineros de Fresnillo – last 6
LDDDLL
19 Sep
@ Héroes de Zaci
0–2
L
5 Sep
@ Correcaminos UAT II
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Real Apodaca
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Cimarrones
1–1
D
11 Apr
@ Durango
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Los Cabos United
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vaqueros Reynosa and Mineros de Fresnillo.
What is the prediction for Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our pick is Vaqueros Reynosa or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
On our numbers Vaqueros Reynosa have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mineros de Fresnillo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our predicted score is Vaqueros Reynosa 1–0 Mineros de Fresnillo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Vaqueros Reynosa vs Mineros de Fresnillo (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
