Double chanceDragones de Oaxaca or draw ✓92% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.79
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Refineros travel to face Dragones de Oaxaca on Sunday 4 October in the Liga Premier Serie A – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Dragones de Oaxaca are 1st, leading the league, on 25 points after 11 matches; Real Refineros are 8th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Dragones de Oaxaca, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Delfines Coatzacoalcos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Real Refineros, last 4: DDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Delfines Coatzacoalcos, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Dragones de Oaxaca, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Real Refineros.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Dragones de Oaxaca 2.5 xG, Real Refineros 0.8 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 51% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Dragones de Oaxaca 72%, draw 21%, Real Refineros 8%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Dragones de Oaxaca to win (72%, odds 1.29). Most likely score in line with that pick: Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Real Refineros. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Dragones de Oaxaca72%fair 1.40 · @1.29
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @5.00
Real Refineros8%fair 13.17 · @8.50
3.30Expected goals
2.49Dragones de Oaxaca xG
0.81Real Refineros xG
51%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
3–09%
2–19%
1–09%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Dragones de Oaxaca 2.5 – 0.8 Real Refineros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dragones de Oaxaca to win✓
72%
1.40
1.29
Double chance
Dragones de Oaxaca or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Draw no bet
Dragones de Oaxaca (draw no bet)✓
90%
1.11
–
Asian handicap
Dragones de Oaxaca -1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
First team to score
Dragones de Oaxaca to score first
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Dragones de Oaxaca ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dragones de Oaxaca / FT Dragones de Oaxaca✓
50%
1.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.79
–
Recent results
Dragones de Oaxaca – last 6
DWDWWD
27 Sep
@ Delfines Coatzacoalcos
3–3
D
20 Sep
vs Cañoneros Marina
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Acambaro
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Halcones Negros
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Ciervos
2–0
W
26 Mar
vs Poza Rica
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Refineros – last 4
DDWL
20 Sep
@ Delfines Coatzacoalcos
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Calor de San Pedro
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Cañoneros Marina
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Artesanos Metepec
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dragones de Oaxaca and Real Refineros.
What is the prediction for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Our pick is Dragones de Oaxaca to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
On our numbers Dragones de Oaxaca have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Refineros 8%.
How many goals will there be in Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Our predicted score is Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Real Refineros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
