Nacional Asuncion v Libertad Asuncion Prediction & Expected Goals (2 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓41% · @2.50

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.19

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:00 WAT, Wednesday 2 September: Nacional Asuncion v Libertad Asuncion in the Division Profesional Clausura, played at Estadio Arsenio Erico. In the table, Nacional Asuncion are 4th, among the top four, on 32 points after 19 matches; Libertad Asuncion are 3rd (among the top four) with 33. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Nacional Asuncion, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Club Sp. San Lorenzo, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Libertad Asuncion, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cerro Porteno, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (24 May 2026) it ended Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Libertad Asuncion. The last 2 head-to-heads: Nacional Asuncion 1 win, Libertad Asuncion 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals and saw GG land 2 times.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Nacional Asuncion 1.3 xG, Libertad Asuncion 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional Asuncion 41%, draw 24%, Libertad Asuncion 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.83.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Libertad Asuncion. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Nacional Asuncion41%fair 2.46 · @2.50

Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.00

Libertad Asuncion35%fair 2.85 · @2.80

2.40Expected goals

1.26Nacional Asuncion xG

1.14Libertad Asuncion xG

56%Both score

43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

0–110%

0–09%

2–18%

1–27%

From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.3 – 1.1 Libertad Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Nacional Asuncion to win ✓	41%	2.46	2.50
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.32	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	56%	1.78	1.83
Draw no bet	Nacional Asuncion (draw no bet) ✓	54%	1.86	–
Asian handicap	Libertad Asuncion +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	68%	1.48	1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	57%	1.75	1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Nacional Asuncion to score first ✓	48%	2.10	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	45%	2.22	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion ✓	22%	4.47	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.19	–

Nacional Asuncion – last 6

WWWDDL

28 Aug	@ Club Sp. San Lorenzo	3–0	W
24 Aug	vs Sportivo Luqueno	2–0	W
18 Aug	@ Benjamín Aceval	2–0	W
15 Aug	@ Sportivo Trinidense	1–1	D
9 Aug	vs Club Guarani	0–0	D
3 Aug	@ Deportivo Recoleta	2–3	L

1.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Libertad Asuncion – last 6

DWDWWL

30 Aug	@ Cerro Porteno	1–1	D
24 Aug	vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo	1–0	W
20 Aug	@ Tacuary	0–0	D
16 Aug	@ Sportivo Luqueno	2–1	W
10 Aug	vs Sportivo Trinidense	2–1	W
2 Aug	@ Club Guarani	1–2	L

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Division Profesional Clausura table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Olimpia	19	13	3	3	+23	42
2	Sportivo Trinidense	19	10	4	5	+13	34
3	Libertad Asuncion	19	10	3	6	+8	33
4	Nacional Asuncion	19	9	5	5	+12	32
5	Club Guarani	19	8	7	4	+4	31
6	2 de Mayo	19	8	6	5	-3	30
7	Cerro Porteno	19	8	4	7	+5	28
8	Sportivo Luqueno	19	7	1	11	-8	22
9	Sportivo Ameliano	19	4	7	8	-9	19
10	Rubio NU	19	4	5	10	-15	17
11	Deportivo Recoleta	19	4	4	11	-12	16
12	Club Sp. San Lorenzo	19	2	5	12	-18	11

Team

Pts

+23

+13

+12

-3

-8

-9

-15

-12

-18

More Division Profesional Clausura predictions

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Libertad Asuncion 35%.

How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Libertad Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arsenio Erico.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Nacional Asuncion v Libertad Asuncion: numbers & prediction