Nacional Asuncion 64%Draw 22%Sportivo Ameliano 14%Expected goals 1.64 – 0.59
64%
Betarazi pick
Nacional Asuncion to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.80Odds
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.68
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 25 September the Division Profesional Clausura brings Nacional Asuncion against Sportivo Ameliano at Estádio Arsenio Erico. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Nacional Asuncion are 4th, among the top four, on 32 points after 19 matches; Sportivo Ameliano are 9th (lower half) with 19. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over 2 de Mayo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Sportivo Ameliano, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Libertad Asuncion, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Nacional Asuncion, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Sportivo Ameliano.
Head to head
When they last met (25 Jul 2026) it ended Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. The last 3 head-to-heads: Nacional Asuncion 0 wins, Sportivo Ameliano 0, draws 3. Those games averaged 2.0 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional Asuncion 1.6 xG, Sportivo Ameliano 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional Asuncion 64%, draw 22%, Sportivo Ameliano 14%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion to win (64%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional Asuncion64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.20
Sportivo Ameliano14%fair 7.16 · @4.60
2.23Expected goals
1.64Nacional Asuncion xG
0.59Sportivo Ameliano xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.6 – 0.6 Sportivo Ameliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sportivo Ameliano 14%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Arsenio Erico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
