Nacional Asuncion 62%Draw 22%Deportivo Recoleta 16%Expected goals 1.83 – 0.79
84%
Betarazi pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:20 WAT, Monday 12 October: Nacional Asuncion v Deportivo Recoleta in the Division Profesional Clausura, played at Estádio Arsenio Erico. In the table, Nacional Asuncion are 4th, among the top four, on 32 points after 19 matches; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th (in the drop zone) with 16. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nacional Asuncion, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Olimpia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Deportivo Recoleta, last 5: LDWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Libertad Asuncion, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Nacional Asuncion, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Deportivo Recoleta.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Aug 2026) it ended Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional Asuncion. The last 2 head-to-heads: Nacional Asuncion 0 wins, Deportivo Recoleta 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 4.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional Asuncion 1.8 xG, Deportivo Recoleta 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional Asuncion 62%, draw 22%, Deportivo Recoleta 16%.
Lower-risk option: Nacional Asuncion or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Nacional Asuncion to win @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Nacional Asuncion or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional Asuncion62%fair 1.60 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.40
Deportivo Recoleta16%fair 6.36 · @4.00
2.62Expected goals
1.83Nacional Asuncion xG
0.79Deportivo Recoleta xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.8 – 0.8 Deportivo Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Recoleta 16%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 23:20 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Arsenio Erico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
