Value bet: Ario Eslamshahr to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArio Eslamshahr to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.50
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:30 WAT, Monday 5 October: Mes Rafsanjan v Ario Eslamshahr in the Azadegan League, played at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium. In the table, Mes Rafsanjan are 4th, among the top four, on 16 points after 9 matches; Ario Eslamshahr are 7th (upper half) with 13. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mes Rafsanjan, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Be'sat Kermanshah, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Ario Eslamshahr, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Havadar, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mes Rafsanjan 0.7 xG, Ario Eslamshahr 0.9 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mes Rafsanjan 32%, draw 25%, Ario Eslamshahr 43%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Ario Eslamshahr to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.34). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mes Rafsanjan32%fair 3.12 · @2.77
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.77
Ario Eslamshahr43%fair 2.33 · @2.50
1.59Expected goals
0.70Mes Rafsanjan xG
0.89Ario Eslamshahr xG
47%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–020%
0–118%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Mes Rafsanjan 0.7 – 0.9 Ario Eslamshahr expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ario Eslamshahr to win✗
43%
2.33
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.53
Draw no bet
Ario Eslamshahr (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Mes Rafsanjan +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.59
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.34
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
First team to score
Ario Eslamshahr to score first✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.50
–
Recent results
Mes Rafsanjan – last 5
WDDLW
29 Sep
vs Be'sat Kermanshah
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Mes Soongoun
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Havadar
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Esteghlal FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Paykan
2–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ario Eslamshahr – last 6
WWLWDD
28 Sep
vs Havadar
2–0
W
22 Sep
@ Naft Gachsaran
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
0–3
L
17 Jul
@ Nassaji Mazandaran
2–1
W
11 Jul
vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1–1
D
3 Jul
@ Damash Gilanian
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mes Rafsanjan and Ario Eslamshahr.
What is the prediction for Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
On our numbers Mes Rafsanjan have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ario Eslamshahr 43%.
How many goals will there be in Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our predicted score is Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr (Azadegan League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
