Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Independiente del Valle welcome Flamengo to Estadio Banco Guayaquil for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Friday 11 September (01:30 WAT). In the table, Independiente del Valle are 1st on 13 points after 6 matches; Flamengo are 1st with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Macara, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Flamengo, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Remo, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 1.3 xG, Flamengo 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 35%, draw 25%, Flamengo 41%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.75, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 1–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle35%fair 2.89 · @3.00
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @2.90
Flamengo41%fair 2.45 · @2.40
2.67Expected goals
1.27Independiente del Valle xG
1.40Flamengo xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 1.3 – 1.4 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
41%
2.45
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle +1 (Asian handicap)✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.59
–
Recent results
Independiente del Valle – last 6
WLDWWW
6 Sep
vs Macara
3–1
W
3 Sep
@ Barcelona SC
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Universidad Catolica
2–2
D
26 Aug
vs Deportes Tolima
3–1
W
22 Aug
@ Leones del Norte
3–2
W
19 Aug
@ Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
WWWLWW
6 Sep
@ Remo
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs Mirassol
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs Botafogo
3–0
W
23 Aug
@ Cruzeiro
1–2
L
20 Aug
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Mirassol
5–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente del Valle and Flamengo.
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Flamengo 41%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 1–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo?
Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
