South Melbourne 63%Draw 24%Lions 13%Expected goals 2.29 – 1.04
63%
Betarazi pick
South Melbourne to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✓63% · @1.62
Double chanceSouth Melbourne or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
South Melbourne vs Lions: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
10:30 WAT, Tuesday 15 September: South Melbourne v Lions in the Australia Cup, played at Lakeside Stadium.
Current form
South Melbourne, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Oakleigh Cannons, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Lions, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Peninsula Power, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Lions, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.5 for South Melbourne.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give South Melbourne 2.3 xG, Lions 1.0 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – South Melbourne 63%, draw 24%, Lions 13%.
Lower-risk option: South Melbourne or draw (87%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was South Melbourne to win (63%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: South Melbourne 2–1 Lions. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
South Melbourne63%fair 1.60 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.90
Lions13%fair 7.54 · @4.33
3.33Expected goals
2.29South Melbourne xG
1.04Lions xG
62%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 2.3 – 1.0 Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✓
63%
1.60
1.62
Double chance
South Melbourne or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.60
Draw no bet
South Melbourne (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
South Melbourne -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
South Melbourne to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
South Melbourne ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
South Melbourne – last 6
LWLWLW
11 Sep
@ Oakleigh Cannons
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Heidelberg United
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Sunshine Georgies
0–1
L
26 Aug
@ Preston Lions
2–1
W
23 Aug
vs Heidelberg United
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Melbourne City II
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lions – last 6
WWWWWW
12 Sep
vs Peninsula Power
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Peninsula Power
4–1
W
25 Aug
vs North Sunshine Eagles
4–0
W
14 Aug
@ Moreton City Excelsior
2–0
W
11 Aug
vs Melbourne City
2–0
W
7 Aug
vs Brisbane Roar II
4–2
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Lions.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Lions?
Our pick is South Melbourne to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Lions?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lions 13%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Lions?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Lions?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 2–1 Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Lions?
South Melbourne vs Lions (Australia Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Lakeside Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
