Santa Fe 45%Draw 23%Vasco DA Gama 32%Expected goals 1.31 – 1.05
79%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSanta Fe to win ✗45% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Tuesday 8 September: Santa Fe v Vasco DA Gama in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana.
Current form
Santa Fe, last 5: DWDDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Fortaleza FC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Fluminense, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vasco DA Gama, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Santa Fe.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santa Fe 1.3 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santa Fe 45%, draw 23%, Vasco DA Gama 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santa Fe 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santa Fe45%fair 2.24 · @2.18
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.10
Vasco DA Gama32%fair 3.13 · @3.45
2.35Expected goals
1.31Santa Fe xG
1.05Vasco DA Gama xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.3 – 1.0 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Fe to win✗
45%
2.24
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Santa Fe (draw no bet)
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Vasco DA Gama +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Santa Fe to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.78
–
Recent results
Santa Fe – last 6
DWDDDD
6 Sep
vs Fortaleza FC
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Millonarios
3–2
W
30 Aug
@ Junior
1–1
D
27 Aug
@ River Plate
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs America de Cali
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs River Plate
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
LWWWLW
6 Sep
@ Fluminense
0–1
L
3 Sep
@ Vitoria
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs Cruzeiro
3–1
W
27 Aug
vs Vitoria
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Palmeiras
1–4
L
20 Aug
@ Olimpia
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vasco DA Gama 32%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
