Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.70 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗63% · @1.70
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.43
Atenas vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Atenas on Thursday 3 September in the Copa Uruguay – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT.
Current form
Atenas, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Paysandu, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Penarol, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Club Nacional, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atenas 0.8 xG, Penarol 1.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atenas 14%, draw 23%, Penarol 63%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Penarol to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atenas 0–2 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atenas14%fair 7.38 · @5.10
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.20
Penarol63%fair 1.58 · @1.70
2.64Expected goals
0.76Atenas xG
1.88Penarol xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atenas 0.8 – 1.9 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.60
Draw no bet
Penarol (draw no bet)
82%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Penarol -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Penarol to score first✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.43
–
Recent results
Atenas – last 6
LLDWWW
29 Aug
@ Paysandu
0–2
L
26 Aug
@ Danubio
2–3
L
23 Aug
vs Sportivo Huracan
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Uruguay Montevideo
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Oriental
1–0
W
3 Aug
vs Colón
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
LWDWWW
30 Aug
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
27 Aug
vs Atletico Torque
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Central Espanol
2–1
W
6 Aug
vs Wanderers
5–1
W
1 Aug
vs Cerro Largo
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atenas and Penarol.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Atenas vs Penarol?
On our numbers Atenas have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 63%.
How many goals will there be in Atenas vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atenas vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Atenas 0–2 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atenas vs Penarol?
Atenas vs Penarol (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
