Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.47 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.47Odds
Picks by market
ResultCelaya to win ✓57% · @1.77
Double chanceCelaya or draw ✓82% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Celaya vs Tapachula: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 6 September the brings Celaya against Tapachula. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT.
Current form
Celaya, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cimarrones, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Tapachula, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Racing de Veracruz, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tapachula, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Celaya.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Celaya 2.1 xG, Tapachula 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Celaya 57%, draw 24%, Tapachula 18%.
Lower-risk option: Celaya or draw (82%) at 1.19.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (61%, odds 1.47). Most likely score in line with that pick: Celaya 2–1 Tapachula. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Celaya57%fair 1.74 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.50
Tapachula18%fair 5.49 · @4.14
3.24Expected goals
2.10Celaya xG
1.14Tapachula xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Celaya 2.1 – 1.1 Tapachula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celaya to win✓
57%
1.74
1.77
Double chance
Celaya or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Draw no bet
Celaya (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Tapachula +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.47
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.15
First team to score
Celaya to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Celaya ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celaya / FT Celaya✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Celaya – last 6
LWDLDW
26 Apr
@ Cimarrones
1–2
L
23 Apr
vs Cimarrones
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Jaguares de Chiapas
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Montañeses
1–5
L
22 Mar
vs Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
3 Mar
vs Chapulineros
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Tapachula – last 6
LLWWWW
30 Aug
vs Racing de Veracruz
0–4
L
15 Apr
@ Tritons Vallarta
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Mexicali FC
4–0
W
28 Mar
@ Cañoneros Marina
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Pioneros de Cancún
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Jaguares de Chiapas
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celaya and Tapachula.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.47.
Who will win Celaya vs Tapachula?
On our numbers Celaya have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tapachula 18%.
How many goals will there be in Celaya vs Tapachula?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celaya vs Tapachula?
Our predicted score is Celaya 2–1 Tapachula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Celaya vs Tapachula?
Celaya vs Tapachula () kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
