Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Chapulineros to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultChapulineros to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceChapulineros or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.93
Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:00 WAT, Saturday 24 October: Chapulineros v Tritons Vallarta in the .
Current form
Chapulineros, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Montañeses, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Tritons Vallarta, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Irapuato, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Chapulineros, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Tritons Vallarta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapulineros 1.7 xG, Tritons Vallarta 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapulineros 60%, draw 25%, Tritons Vallarta 15%.
Lower-risk option: Chapulineros or draw (85%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Chapulineros to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Chapulineros or draw (85%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapulineros 1–0 Tritons Vallarta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapulineros60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.40
Tritons Vallarta15%fair 6.63 · @3.60
2.38Expected goals
1.67Chapulineros xG
0.71Tritons Vallarta xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Chapulineros 1.7 – 0.7 Tritons Vallarta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chapulineros to win✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Chapulineros or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.73
Draw no bet
Chapulineros (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Chapulineros -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Chapulineros to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chapulineros / FT Chapulineros✓
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.93
–
Recent results
Chapulineros – last 6
WWLDDL
17 Oct
vs Montañeses
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Tapachula
3–2
W
26 Sep
vs Pioneros de Cancún
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Celaya
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Racing de Veracruz
1–5
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tritons Vallarta – last 6
LLDLDD
11 Oct
@ Irapuato
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Lobos ULMX
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Los Cabos United
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Zacatepec 1948
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Deportiva Venados
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapulineros and Tritons Vallarta.
What is the prediction for Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Our pick is Chapulineros or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
On our numbers Chapulineros have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tritons Vallarta 15%.
How many goals will there be in Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Our predicted score is Chapulineros 1–0 Tritons Vallarta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta () kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
